Nintendo Switch OLED Ridley
Image: Zion Grassl / Nintendo Life

Today, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa started a stopwatch that puts an official deadline on the reveal of the Switch successor — he says it's coming "this fiscal year," which means FY2025, which means between now and April 2025.

It's important to remember that this specifically refers to the reveal of the upcoming hardware, a system we've come to call 'Switch 2' through lack of an official name and the common-sense suggestion that Nintendo will stick to its winning handheld-hybrid formula with its next console.

With this statement, the company is looking to set expectations and avoid rampant new hardware rumours encroaching on everything else it has planned for 2024, as evidenced by its early confirmation of a June 2024 Nintendo Direct and that the new system won't feature in it. Instead, the traditional summer Direct presentation will focus on the "Nintendo Switch software lineup for the latter half of 2024."

Getting ahead of speculation with Direct announcements is a now-standard play from Nintendo's book — you routinely see the duration and the focus of a particular presentation flagged in the announcement to head off bolting fan expectations at the pass when, for instance, Smash Bros. fighter fervour has people moaning about the lack of DLC news in an Indie World Showcase.

However, with the 31st March 2025 deadline now pencilled in, Nintendo has done two things: one, every non-'Switch 2' announcement between now and next April will have to carry the 'Nope, no Switch successor news here!' disclaimer; and two, it puts even more focus on the launch timeline. Coupled with previous comments and rumours suggesting Nintendo is doing its utmost to ramp up production to meet demand better than it managed with Switch, it seems more likely than ever that the reveal may not happen this year.

You'd be forgiven for assuming that Nintendo will have looked at its successful Nintendo Switch reveal (which was unveiled in October 2016 and launched in March 2017) and would be looking to duplicate that timescale. It's certainly possible, but the company was in a very different position eight years ago.

Nintendo Switch OLED Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Yes, you've played this — but did you buy the bundle yet? — Image: Gemma Smith / Nintendo Life

To recap, the Wii U was dead in the water and the 3DS, however successful, was five years old. Nintendo needed those months between reveal and launch — which Shuntaro Furukawa himself has called "a special case" — to present its proposal, generate buzz, and perhaps even course correct if the reveal didn't go down well. And, of course, manufacture units to meet demand.

Times have changed. Switch is now into its eighth year, and 'Switch 2' rumours have been doing the rounds for years. The buzz couldn't be higher and that means expectations are stratospheric. If the new console does indeed stick closely to the template of the current Switch in form and function, it behooves Nintendo to get the device in the wild as soon as possible following the reveal, especially if the specs are more modest than some fans are expecting.

Demonstrating the new console's features and what sets it apart from the current Switch will be key, but Nintendo has a tightrope to walk with this one. 3DS took its predeccessor's basic form and added a headline gimmick, but focusing on the 3D turned out to be a strategic error; it took a price drop, the make-good Ambassador Program, and a slew of great games to get people, gradually, back on board. The sheer hunger for new hardware will be compelling enough for hardcore Nintendo fans to upgrade, but striking the right value proposition for everyone else is going to be tricky all right.

Nintendo Switch OLED Mario
Image: Damien McFerran / Nintendo Life

There's also the question of Holiday Season 2024. Looking at the lucrative November/December period from last year, new games like Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Super Mario RPG — critically acclaimed titles featuring Nintendo's mascot — buoyed the Switch and helped distract from the fact that it was the console's seventh Christmas on store shelves. The Switch has an incredible library to lean on, but that's not going to keep the hardcore happy, however large their backlogs

Nintendo could have Wonder-calibre titles lined up for launch in October and November, but you'd also expect the big guns to remain holstered ready to launch with a first-year software lineup to convince the masses that, 'Yes, we absolutely need to pick up this new, bit-better Nintendo Switch because of that game.' It seems unlikely that the ESRB-rated Nintendo World Championships: NES Edition is going to fall into the category of Mario-level system seller. Then again, if the firm is forecasting sales of another 13.5 million Switches by April 2025, so there's got to be something pretty tasty on the horizon. Roll on that June Direct.

So then, could Nintendo eke another Holiday season out of the current Switch? Could it hold back unveiling the Switch successor until early 2025? Is it possible to staunch the inevitable supply chain leaks as manufacturers go into overdrive with Nintendo stockpiling units for a faster-than-Switch reveal-to-release?

It's not something many eager Nintendo fans would like, but when you stand back and look at the business realities, it seems sensible. One final seasonal push, with software bundles galore to clear inventory before kicking off 2025 with a bang. It ain't flashy, but it makes sense. You were looking forward to seeing some snazzy new Joy-Con colours and that Mario Kart bundle again, weren't you? No? Er, hello?

Nintendo Switch OLED Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle
In 20XX, when brick-and-mortar retailers are long gone, this bundle will somehow return — Image: Nintendo

What do you think? Will Nintendo try and get through 2024 without officially revealing the Switch's successor? Is there enough juice in Switch's tank to get us to 2025 without the new hotness? Let us know in the poll and the comments.

Do you think Nintendo Switch has one final holiday season to itself before the 'Switch 2' reveal?

What's that? Metroid Prime 4, eh? Look, if that's Nintendo's Thanksgiving Switch game this year, bring on the Switch 2 reveal in 2025!